Justin Cooper

December 10, 2018

Going into Friday night’s road matchup versus the Bulls, the Thunder were 13-0 versus sub-.500 competition, a vast improvement over last year’s team which was much maligned for its performance against teams with losing records.  The Thunder’s improvement this season in games the team should win has been a much discussed area of emphasis, and cannot be understated.  Last year, only two games separated securing home court advantage in the playoffs from simply watching the playoffs from home in the crowded Western Conference.  This season appears to be shaking out much like last year as, just over a quarter of the way through, only three games separate the fourth seed from the ninth, making every “should win” feel more like a “must win,” and every missed opportunity, a nagging reminder of just how easy becoming the team left “outside looking in” can be.

It’s the urgency that such a tightly contested race in the West creates that makes Friday night’s loss to the Bulls at the United Center sting just a little bit more.  The Thunder had been rolling, having won 16 of their last 19 contests coming into the game, despite Russell Westbrook missing considerable time recovering from injury and defensive ace, Andre Roberson, still on the mend from last year’s torn patellar tendon.  For all the praise Oklahoma City has received for its stellar performance against sub-par opponents, however, little has been mentioned regarding the configuration of the Thunder’s 2018-2019 schedule.  

Undeniably, the Thunder have been the beneficiary of a soft early season schedule and, until Friday night, had capitalized even in the face of injury, as they currently occupy the second spot in the West behind the Golden State Warriors.  The Thunder’s first four contests came against stout competition, opening the season on the road versus the Warriors and Clippers, then returning home to host the Celtics and the surprisingly competent Kings.  The Westbrook-less Thunder dropped their first two on the road and didn’t fare much better in the MVP’s first 2 games back on the court, losing both at home.  Since starting the season 0-4, the Thunder have seemingly righted the ship, winning 16 of their last 20 games, however, playing against opponents that place Oklahoma City’s current strength of schedule at 28^th, third lowest in the NBA.  During the 20 game stretch following their 0-4 start, the Thunder have faced the Suns (4-22) on three occasions, the Cavs (6-20) on two, and have logged games versus the Bulls (6-21), Knicks (8-20), Nets (10-18), Wizards (11-15), and Rockets (11-14).  While most around the league expect that the Rockets will come into form at least in time to squeak into the playoffs, the Suns, Cavs, Nets, and Knicks, who collectively account for more than a third of the Thunder’s victories this season, are bottom of the barrel bad, compiling only 30 wins while amassing 79 losses.     

It would be looking a gift horse in the mouth for Thunder fans to look at any of these victories through a lens that reduces the significance of each and every one of them.  Each win, whether against the mighty Golden State Warriors or the tanking Phoenix Suns, is equally valuable as it pertains to the overall record, however, the Thunder’s current record should be considered with caution.  For as much credit the Thunder deservedly receive for putting away “should win” contests this season, racking up a 13-1 record against sub-.500 competition in route to a 16-8 overall record reveals a more bothersome truth; the Thunder are 3-7 against teams with winning records.  Granted, all four teams the Thunder opened the season against are still maintaining a winning trajectory, and much of the 3-7 record versus winning teams can be chalked up to a slow start; it could be argued that, still early in the season, we do not have a sample size large enough to conclude that this team is poised to become giant slayers. 

The Thunder host Donovan Mitchell and the Utah Jazz this evening, hoping for a night of restitution versus a team that dispensed OKC in six games last season in the first round of the playoffs, marking the second straight year the Thunder failed to reach the second round.  Many fans around the NBA would salivate at the notion of even being within sniffing distance of the playoffs, but with Oklahoma City in win now mode, well into the luxury tax and entering  Russell Westbrook’s prime, 49 win seasons and first round playoff exits fall below the bar Sam Presti has set for this team.  The Jazz (13-14) have struggled to find their footing this season, but have started to find a rhythm as of late.  Like the Thunder, Utah’s record is potentially deceiving.  On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Jazz, to date, have logged the league’s most difficult schedule.  The Nets have the worst record of any team the Jazz have faced this season at 10-18 and the 14 losses the Jazz have suffered, with the exception of a two point loss to the Heat and their most recent loss to the Spurs (whom the Jazz defeated by 34 just a few days earlier), have all come to teams that currently boast records of .500 or better.  This is the same Jazz team that gave the Thunder fits in last year’s playoffs and not a sub-.500 team the likes of the Cavs or Suns.  Although Utah has not yet achieved a winning record, this is a statement game for the Thunder, as the Jazz will likely be a playoff team as their strength of schedule weakens and their record improves. 

The Thunder’s 2018-2019 schedule played to their benefit as the team was plagued with injuries throughout the first quarter of the year, however, the back end of Oklahoma City’s schedule is not as forgiving.  The Thunder, over the last 15 games of the season will face the Raptors (21-7)  twice,  the Pacers (16-10) twice, as well as the Bucks (17-8), Nuggets (17-9), Lakers (16-10), Pistons (13-11), and a Rockets team that may very well be fighting tooth and nail to scrape their way into the playoffs come April.  Thunder fan’s should celebrate this team’s early success this season, but should also understand that the biggest tests this squad will face lie around the corner and that teams like the Bulls are meant for sharpening teeth, not licking wounds.  The Thunder should seize the opportunity to add a quality win to their resume this evening versus the Utah Jazz. 

 

Game tips off at 7:00PM CST, and will be broadcast on Fox Sports Oklahoma.